Betting Guides > How to win on football betting using the Kelly criterion

    How to win on football betting using the Kelly criterion

    football betting using the Kelly criterion

    5 min |

    Football Betting and Kelly Criterion

    What exactly is the Kelly Criterion?

    How to win in football betting? The solution is easy but requires some practice using the Kelly Criterion which is a money management tool that helps you determine how much money you can risk on each new bargain and the size of it based on how well you performed on previous similar bargains to win on football betting.

    The Kelly Criterion allows you to calculate your optimum stake based on your betting odds and your forecast. Betting on any more would involve pointless risk and betting any less would involve lower returns. It is, thus, an excellent tool for managing your money, and fearlessly determining the amount of money to risk on each bargain based on previous ones.

    The optimum stake is expressed as a percentage of the total amount you allocate for sports betting.

    How to win on football betting using the Kelly criterion?

    (Exclusive) How do you know the odds of a bet?

    The answer is as follows:

    To calculate your stake, you need to know the odds of the bookmaker (O) and accurately calculate the probability of a successful outcome for your prediction (P). So, the formula is as follows:

    Your Betting Portfolio % = (O × P-1) / (O-1)

    Example of calculating Kelly’s criterion


    Nadal-Federer Tennis Match

    Your betting portfolio is 1000 euros. The following odds are offered:


    Nadal Federer
    2.1 1.7


    Here, you are using a reliable statistical model and estimating that Federer has a 50% chance of winning the match. The odds of 2.1 are exaggerated, making this a value bet.

    The Kelly Criterion allows you to calculate the optimum stake:

    Kelly % = (2.1 × 50%-1) / (2.1-1) = 4.54%

    Therefore, you have to place a bet of 4.54% of the betting portfolio, for example: 45.4 euros (4.54% × 1000 euros).

    Note that this system will only make you a profit if you calculate the probability with an odds calculator more accurately than the bookmaker!

    “If your estimates are wrong, the strategy will accumulate your losses quickly.”


    Kelly Criterion Money Management Tools: How to Win at Football Betting

    Limit your maximum stakes to avoid the risk of huge damaging losses. Set a limit on your stakes (For example: between 1% and 5% of your portfolio), or multiply the percentages given by Kelly Criterion by a coefficient between 0 and 0.5.

    Be very disciplined. Even if you personally want to increase your stake, you should limit yourself to the stakes that the system calculates. You will see how the Kelly Criterion pays off in the long term!


    Always keep in mind that the Kelly Criterion is only effective if you are better at anticipating the outcome of events than the bookmakers are!

    Rest assured that SPORT-FANATICO is here to help you do just that!

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