Betting Guides > Bet on Tennis value

    Bet on Tennis value

    How to bet on Tennis value and develop this strategy

    5 min |


    Bet on Tennis value

    Bet on Tennis value, developing a Tennis betting strategy or Tennis betting system can take some time and persistence.

    But no matter what the general approach you take, there is a basic rule that applies to all sorts of tennis betting as in any other sport, betting is only legitimate when there is a value.

    The value in tennis bets means looking for a situation where you think that there is more potential for the outcome than what presented odds suggest.

    For example, let’s say Novak Djokovic is about to play against Rafael Nadal. These two have played against each other more than any other since the professional tennis era began.

    Lately, Djokovic has been tightening his stranglehold while winning his matches with a strong style. This will make bookmakers favorite Djokovic win against Nadal, with the best odds at 1.50.

    In terms of implied probability, these odds indicate that there is a 66.67% chance that Djokovic will win the match.

    We’ve done our research and we believe that there is, indeed, a 75% chance of Djokovic winning the match. Do we have any value in this bet?

    What is the value of betting on tennis?

    The Bet on Tennis value cannot be underestimated. The key to successful long-term betting is to only bet when there is value in the chances of winning.

    But how do we calculate the value of the bet? It’s a very simple math process:

    Value = (Probability × Decimal Odds) – 1

    So, let’s continue with the previous example. Djokovic’s chances of winning against Nadal are 1.50. We’ve done our research and determined that in our estimation, there is a 75% chance that this player will win the match.

    Do the 1.50 chances of Djokovic winning offer us any value?

    Whenever the value is greater than 0, we have a value bet. Therefore, taking into consideration the odds of 1.50 and our rating probability of 75%, then there is a 12.5% value in the odds offered out of the 1.50 bet for Djokovic to win the match against Nadal.

    This is a great value bet.

    The trick to beat bookmakers in the long-term is to make more accurate assessments of the probability of a particular outcome than the assessments that the odds offered by the bookmakers might indicate.

    If you can do it consistently and frequently, you will stand a chance of being a good tennis bettor in the long run.

    In this example: We assessed that Djokovic had a 75% probability chance of winning the match, while the bookmakers’ odds of 1.50 reflected a 66.67% probability.

    It is a valuable bet for us because we believe that the chances of Djokovic winning the match are greater than the bookmakers’ odds.