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Tennis winning odds explanation

As with all forms of sports betting, odds determine how much the bettor will win from any bet, provided that the bet needs to be successful, How to bet in tennis? and the outcome needs to be correctly predicted.

•         Chances of winning (odds) on tennis are displayed in three ways;
•         Fractional method – a popular method in the UK and Ireland
•         Decimal method – a method popular throughout Europe and the Southern Hemisphere.

The Moneyline method is popular in North America.

No matter how knowledgeable a bettor could be or a tennis tipster maybe, all sporting events are prone to human error, as sports betting is by no means an exact science. However, the laws of probability do determine that an outcome is more or less likely to occur.

What do we mean by win odds in tennis betting?

So, let’s start with the common question, what do tennis betting odds represent? If a player is listed at odds of 1.75 to win a Grand Slam match, what does this mean? Well, betting odds represent a likelihood (often referred to as the ‘implied probability) of a particular outcome occurring. Therefore, if a player is listed at 1.75 to win a match, these odds reflect what the bookmaker believes that the player’s chances of winning the match are.

Hence, what are the chances a player listed at 1.75 will win the match? We can answer this with a simple formula:

Converting Decimal Odds to Implied Probability Formula:

Implied probability = 1/(decimal odds)

In our example, the chances of a player listed at 1.75 winning a match are:

1/1.75=0.5714=57.14%

Understanding the probability expressed in betting odds is key to betting success. Knowing how to convert odds into their implied probability will only help enhance your chances of long-term success betting on tennis.

How to bet in tennis and how do odds work?

So how much will you win if you place a bet on a specific player and he/she wins the match? This is a very simple calculation:

The profit you will get = (stake × odds) – stake

For example, let’s say we place a £10 bet on a player listed at odds =1.75 to win an upcoming match. And let’s say that player wins.

How much profit will you make on your bet?

1. Y our Profit = (£10 × 1.75) – £10
2. Yo ur Profit = (1017.50) – £10
3. You r profit = £7.5

In our example, we will make a profit of £7.50 on our £10 bet. And it’s a really nice win.

You can always use our odds calculator to check the winnings by yourself, or even convert them from one form to another here in this “Page link”

Actual examples of tennis winning chances:

 Heading into the 2014 Australian Open, Rafael Nadal was the number one seed in Melbourne and in the world. Nadal comeback in 2013 with an exciting performance to reach his peak, as he came back from injury to win both the French and US Opens plus nine other titles

 After easily defeating Roger Federer in the semi-finals, Nadal was a strong 1.18 favorite to defeat Stan Wawrinka in the 2014 Australian Open final. With these odds, if bettors placed a £10 bet on Nadal to win, they would receive a total of £11.80 – Including the original £10 stake, making a profit of just £1.80.

As the probability of Nadal winning was already 84.75%.

Despite playing the best tennis of his career and defeating defending champion Novak Djokovic in the quarterfinals, Stan Wawrinka had a 5.60 underdog in the finals against Nadal. This was primarily based on his record of 12 consecutive defeats against the Spaniard in all encounters, in which Wawrinka had failed to even win a set.

However, some experts sensed that an upset was on the cards. Certainly, Nadal was playing really well, but so was Wawrinka. Unquestionably, Stan has never beaten Rafa, but he hasn’t beaten Djokovic as well in seven years and 14 matches before this event. Besides, he was getting closer to Nadal, losing his previous match by two tight sets 7-6 and 7-6.

Wawrinka’s tough game was very suitable for the super-fast hardcourts of Melbourne.

While Nadal was an outstanding player on all courts, his game was primarily still that of a clay-courter, relying on consistent defensive play from the baseline.

A bet of £10 on Wawrinka’s winnings for 5.60 would return a total of £56 including the original stake of £10, yielding a £46 profit.

However, according to the odds, there was only a 17.86% probability of Wawrinka winning.  Very little possibility. Would it pay off?

In the end, Stan won the 2014 Australian Open by beating Nadal in four sets, taking home his first Grand Slam in the process.