Betting Guides > Tennis betting: The 10 most important rules to win over bookmakers

Tennis betting: The 10 most important rules to win over bookmakers

Tennis offers more variables and more markets than almost any other sport, but if one wants to maximize his profits and minimize risks, they need to apply a tennis betting strategy based on a combination of scientific theory as well as good traditional discipline.

#1 Bet only when there is value

Probably doesn’t have to be said (again!) but it’s very important.

Only bet when there is value. Your tennis betting strategy should provide you with the ability to determine the value of your tennis bets.

Any tennis betting system should break down each matchup and leave you with a few contests where betting value is available.

#2 Specialize in tennis betting

With the number of tennis matches taking place throughout the year on both men’s and women’s circuits, it is best to focus on what you know best and specialize in.

It is simply impossible to adequately analyze every upcoming tennis match (unless you are able to develop a sophisticated betting model).

Many successful tennis bettors focus on one area, the Challenger Circuit or only Grand Slam events.

Likewise, focus on the types of tennis betting and markets that you are most familiar with and most comfortable with.

Some bettors focus only on the Asian Handicap bet, while others develop strategies for identifying value in both set and game totals.

No matter which tennis circuit you want to bet on and which types of bets and markets you feel most comfortable with, if you want to be a successful tennis bettor, you need to be selective and focus on areas of expertise.

#3 Have multiple accounts on tennis betting bookmakers sites

If you limit yourself with a few, or worse, a single bookmaker this will limit your chances in the long run. That doesn’t mean we recommend you have an account with dozens of different bookmakers. But relying on just one or two bookmakers for all of your tennis bettings will reduce your overall profits in the long run.

Why?

Well, think of it this way.

If you have accounts with only two bookmakers, you are firstly limiting to a narrower range of tennis betting types and markets to bet on.

But most importantly, you are limiting yourself to a narrower range of odds.

Let’s say you want to bet that Andy Murray will win the next Grand Slam match. And you have accounts with only two bookmakers:

Bookmaker1 has odds = 1.80 on Murray

Bookmaker2 has odds = 1.82 on Murray

Which bookmaker are you going to be with?

Bookmaker 2 is the obvious answer. But let’s imagine that we have four bookmakers accounts:

Bookmaker1 has odds = 1.80 on Murray

Bookmaker2 has odds = 1.82 on Murray

Bookmaker3 has odds = 1.77 on Murray

Bookmaker4 has odds = 1.86 on Murray

Obviously, we’ll want to bet with Bookmaker 4.

While this is a simplified example, it should be clear to you how managing a wide range of bookmaker’s accounts allows you to have not only greater flexibility in the markets, but most importantly, a greater range of possibilities to choose from.

This may seem like a slight difference, but in the long run, it all adds up.

And by the way – you are working too hard to make money from risking losing it to an online scam artist. Always use a bookmaker that has been reviewed by Bettingexpert.

#4 Keep a record of your tennis bets

Tennis betting involves value determination and proper money management. An excellent way to maintain your discipline in both respects is to keep a record of each of your tennis bets.

This record should include the date, tournament match, bet type, bookie, amount of bet you paid, your profit and loss and your comments.

If you do not keep a history of your tennis betting, then you are putting your chance of long-term and profitable tennis betting at great risk. Keeping a detailed record of your tennis betting is a way for you to conduct regular reviews of your overall performance. What are the most profitable types of betting? What tournaments do you usually lose money at? Not only that, but when you hit a losing streak (and they happen to even the best bettors in tennis), you’ll be able to easily look back and observe how you pulled yourself out of losing streaks in the past.

Fortunately, we’ve done the hard work for you, and we created our Bettingexpert spreadsheet. Please feel free to download it or read more about it at the bottom of this page.

#5 Find the rating of the suspected players

Historically, pre-tournament players tend to perform well in major tournament events in both the men’s and women’s competitions. If you want to support the favorites, do so early when the odds are still reasonable.

However, while favorites have performed well in the major tournaments, starting from the days of Connors, Borg, McEnroe, King, Evert and Navratilova, it can be very profitable to identify which of the candidates is likely to underperform against the expectations of their tournament ranking.

Rankings are based on the player’s achievements over the past 12 months. As such a player may rank relatively highly in an event and yet be out of form and may fall to an upset.

Seeded players will always start as favorites over unseeded players by bookmakers, but a little research will always reveal who actually plays well in a match and who doesn’t – regardless of seeding.

#6 Understand Ball Strokes Serving and Returning.

One of the most popular forms of tennis betting is in-play betting, where bettors can wager on game after game in one match, often while watching live streaming. To get the most out of this type of betting, a basic knowledge of the intricacies of tennis serve and return is essential.

The serve in tennis is similar to T-shot in golf or a penalty kick or free kick in soccer; It is the only time in the match when the direct outcome is in the hands of the individual. If the server is of the caliber of Roscoe Tanner, Goran Ivanisevic, Pete Sampras, Andy Roddick, or today’s biggest player like John Isner and Ivo Karlovic, there is an 80% probability that the point is theirs. However, any weakness in a service will become during the course of a match and it will become increasingly weak as it reaches its pivotal stages at the end of each set.

Tennis history of many legendary skilled players in ball returning

In the history of tennis, many legendary players are skilled in returning the ball as the great serving players are. Jimmy Connors was an icon in the ’70s and ’80s and was considered the biggest returning player the game had ever seen until the emergence of Andre Agassi in the late ’80s. Agassi was famously at the other end of the world record 154 mph serve from Andy Roddick – but he succeeded to return it back somehow. However, most experts now consider Novak Djokovic as a greater return than Agassi.

In the modern game, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray, David Ferrer and Giles Simon are just some of the great returners on the tour.

Serve players in tennis betting

Even the biggest servers in tennis will drop their serves at least once in a set. Currently, the most stable serving player in the game is 6’10” John Isner of America 6’11” Croatian Ivo Karlovic. Both men start out with a massive physical advantage over most of their competitors. Given that they are making contact with the ball at something like 9 feet off the ground at the point of service impact, the ball will always sweep the net and fire downward at an acute trajectory, leaving the server to focus on the quality of the delivery, it’s speed and accuracy. The result will be a high-bouncing ball delivered at more than 140 mph – either to the front side, backside or into the opponent’s body.

However, the rank and file of the ATP (Association of Tennis Professionals) are neither 6’11” senders nor Djokovic-like returners. Serving and returning stats of each player in the ATP Tour are listed on the ATP website under “All Match Stats” and they can certainly give you an indication – and probability – of a player’s likelihood of having the ability to serve, return or drop the ball during the course of a set.

#7 Be aware of different playing styles

Thanks to YouTube, one can watch the footage in seconds of pretty much any player on the tour, male or female. Watch both a service and a return game of a player, and you can quickly evaluate the type of player; Is he a big serve player, baseline player, strong return player, forehand player, backhand player, etc.

This tool is undoubtedly useful, especially if you are unfamiliar with the player, you want to see their playing style and how it relates to a particular surface.

#8 Head-to-Head tennis match betting

Take a minute to log into the ATP or WTA website and check head-to-head between the player you are betting on and his opponent. If they have faced each other before, you will see how many times, the results and scorelines of the matches and when they took place.

Again, this is a very useful tool in tennis betting, but matchups should never be taken at face value and one should always check a rivalry closely.

For example, Player A plays well on clay, he is a maestro who has a 2-5 losing record against Player B, a great hardcourt serving specialist and accordingly based on their head-to-head your bet on Player B to win. If you look a little deeper into their head-to-head matches’ history, you would have seen that Player A’s two victories were both on clay, which is the surface they are about to play their upcoming match.

9# Evaluation of surfaces 

When betting on a player, always consider what surface the match will be on and how good the player’s record is on it. Top players like Djokovic, Federer and Nadal can win practically on any surface, from hard surface to clay and grass. Andy Murray always had the tools to play well on clay, but only recently he became a regular winner on red dirt. David Ferrer appears to be the typical clay court player – which indeed he is – but his toughness and tenacity have transferred well to all surfaces, and he has already won more hardcourt events than clay.

In the women’s game, players like Serena Williams, Victoria Azarenka, Maria Sharapova, Caroline Wozniacki, Anna Ivanovic and Garbine Muguruza can play and win on any surface.

Those players aside, most men and women on the tour prefer one surface over another, and they’ve had much more success on their favorite surface. A quick look at a player’s recent activity will tell you about their current performance on a given surface. A look at the titles they have won and the finals they have reached will reveal a lot about the player.

A perfect example is a former player ranked number 9 in the world, Nicolas Almagro of Spain. One of the most talented players of the tour, blessed with ferocious serve, a bombshell of a forehand, blazing speed around the field and his backhand to rival that of Stan Wawrinka.

However, so far Almagro has achieved success only on clay.

He has won 12 ATP titles and reached 10 additional finals, but all on red dirt. Therefore, in a matchup against an opponent of the comparative standing but on hardcourt, the value bet would be against him.

Indoors (Closed Court) or Outdoors (Open Air Court)

Hardcourt events are played indoors, mainly in Europe, and also outdoors, mostly in North America. Clay and grass court events are always played outdoors.

Some players find it more difficult to win in outdoor events, where their game is exposed to weather elements, such as extreme wind conditions, intense sunlight, heat, etc. Goran Ivanisevic won 22 ATP titles, but only seven of them came outdoors.

Goran’s game was built around his massive left-hand serve, so the less weather interference is, the better for his delivery.

Others, such as Rafael Nadal actively prefer to play outdoors, and have a surprisingly poor indoor record (only one of Rafa’s 67 titles has been indoors).

#10 Follow our tennis betting tips

One way to increase your tennis betting returns is to get to know the top tennis specialists and tipsters in the betting area or market that you are not familiar with.

While following tennis tips can be a great way to successfully choose your bet, it is important that you find the tipster/adviser you are considering following. And when we say research, we mean that you should conduct a thorough investigation. There are dozens of expert tennis players on the internet and their prices are high relative to profitability.

And in some cases, they are looking to strip you of your hard-earned money through excessive subscription charges.

But there are a select number of successful tennis tipsters that provide profitable tennis betting tips throughout the year.

In fact, some of the best Bettingexpert’s betting tipsters focus their craft on tennis betting, both ATP and WTA Tours.