Betting Guides > Betting on football matches and what is the best value?

    Betting on football matches and what is the best value?

    Betting on football matches

    4 minutes |

    Football value bets

    The best value in football betting

    First, we have to make it clear that we are not, and should not, be interested in betting on football gambling.

    If you want to learn how to make money gambling, the simple answer is, you can’t.

    We are not interested in “gambling”. The term gambling refers to a certain degree of risk-taking.

    And yes, there is some risk in implementing even the most considered football betting strategy, but you have to distinguish gambling from football betting because football betting is about identifying and exploiting value opportunities, whereas football gambling is just guessing and hoping to win big on the weekend’s football.

    If you want golden football betting advice, it is this- only bet when there is value.


    What is the value football betting?

    The key to serious football betting and making consistent profits from your football bets (or betting on any other sport for that matter) is to find what we call value bets.

    A value bet is when we believe that the chances of a particular outcome are higher than what the odds indicate.

    This is an issue that shouldn’t be underestimated. You should only bet when there is betting value.

    This is why understanding the implied probability reflected in football betting odds is so important and you have to understand it.


    Why is it so important?

    Let us repeat ourselves to make it crystal clear – we should only bet when we believe that the chances of obtaining a particular outcome are greater than the presented odds.

    Example: Liverpool vs Sunderland

    The value of betting on football is where you express your knowledge of football and apply that knowledge.

    Let’s consider two Premier League clubs in this example, Liverpool at home to Sunderland.

    The bookmakers are offering the following odds for the Match Results Market:

    Liverpool 1.50

    Draw 4.50

    Sunderland 6.50

    We are very enthusiastic viewers of the Premier League, we look into every detail and have done additional research on these two clubs.

    Including the possible team lineups for this game, we know that Liverpool will be without their leading goalscorer and their best defender.

    We also know that Sunderland needs a win to avoid relegation and that their leading goalscorer will start this match after two weeks of suspension.

    On top of that, we’ve taken a closer look at some historical football data and seen that Liverpool tend to underperform .

    Given all this information, we believe Sunderland has a good chance of winning this game, making the odds of 6.50 well worth a bet.

    These odds indicate that Sunderland has a 15.4% chance of winning.

    We believe their chances, while still slight, are closer to 20%.

    This is a value bet because we believe that the chances of winning Sunderland are greater than those reflected in the odds being offered.


    How do we calculate a Football Value Bet?

    As it was discussed, Sunderland’s odds of winning the match are 6.50, which means they have an implied probability of 15.4 percent of winning. But through our knowledge and analysis, we believe Sunderland’s chances are higher than that, we believe they have a 20% chance of winning.

    We calculate the betting value according to the following formula:


    Value = (Decimal Odds  × Our Assessed Probability) – 1


    So, in our example, we have a 6.50 chance of Sunderland winning and our estimated probability of winning is 20%. Do we have a value bet?

    Value = (6.50 × 0.20) – 1

    1.Value = 1.30 – 1

    2.Value = + 0.30

    When the calculation provides us with a + number, we have a value bet. In this case, we believe Sunderland are an excellent +30% value bet. If the calculation gives us a number less or equal to 0, there is no betting value and we should not place a bet. In order to be a successful long-term football bettor, it is important to expand your knowledge of both the game of football, as well as expanding your knowledge of the football betting markets. Developing both in unison will enhance your ability to recognize the football betting value.


    How much money should you put in the bet?

    Now, we come to the topic of staking. The main purpose of betting is to make money. Yes, some people bet just for fun, which is fine, but here we are interested in making real profits from football betting.

    However, regardless of whether you intend to be a serious football bettor or just a fan who enjoys his weekend, there are:

    Three crucial things to remember when it comes to your staking:

    • Bet only on what you can afford to lose
    •  Never chase losses

     Do not raise your stakes after consecutive wins or a series of losses.