Betting Guides > Betting on value and how to ensure profitability

Learn how to choose the right bets and ensure long-term profitability using the value betting technique.

In betting on value or betting on the winning player, the bookmaker calculates a sports game outcome’s during the event, in order to determine the odds in his favor. If the bookmaker underestimates these odds, they will provide high once, thus allowing you to bet on profitable odds. Thus, a value bet is a bet in which the bookmaker underestimates the value of the outcome.

A bet becomes a value bet if the following formula is applied:

Value = (Probability x Odds) > 1

An example of a value bet:

Nadal-Murray Tennis match on a Grass court

The odds for Nadal to win: 1.5

The odds for Murray to win: 2.2

This reliable statistical model gives Nadal a 75% chance of winning, while the bookmaker estimates the odds at 66.67%.

Odds= = 1/1.5 66.67%

Therefore, the bookmaker lowered the odds of Nadal winning, who had a very high chance of winning (the chances should be 1/75 = 1.33). This is a bet on value.

If you want to find the best value bets, you will need to calculate the odds of the events yourself. If your estimates are correct, you will win bets more often than the probabilities shown by what the bookmakers’ odds seem to indicate, so you will make a long-term profit.

Therefore, the difficulty in making value bets consists of being able to calculate probabilities more accurately than bookmakers. Bookmakers have a wide range of powerful tools, and at first glance, this may seem like a hopeless task.